Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Buy Stocks Now!

I think the recent 30-50% slide in equities already prices in a severe and protracted recession. Assuming credit flows do stabilize (and the trend is positive), we are basically left with a stagnant economy. Most companies however will still be around and most will still make profits. The current "irrational" market however is valuing many stocks at ridiculously low valuations. Some are even near their cash values which means the market doesn't think they're worth anything. Clearly much of the recent selling is liquidity-based and I figure seniors and others who MUST have some cash to hold them over are mostly done selling by now (or will be very soon). And after the non-serious investors have exited via panic selling, the remaining investors will begin to see stocks for their intrinsic value again. At that point, and this is where I think we are, it will be apparent that many many stocks are bargains. This is not to say we will recover our huge losses (if we do, it will probably take a long time)--just that the equity market has clearly overshot a value target on the way down.

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