Rising China, India and Russia?

A friend of mine and I frequently debate as to whether the U.S. is in decline or not. He routinely points out that China, India and Russia are rising powers. Our addiction to, and consumption of, foreign goods, and overall lack of energy resources is creating a huge transfer of wealth overseas. Americans have become complacent and our education system is faltering. The resulting brain drain will inevitably make us a second-tier nation. The U.S. already can't manufacture anything competitively, and we will face our eventual demise.

I argue that the U.S. possesses inherent advantages that still uniquely make us “one of a kind”. Much focus has been made on America’s success due to our industrial past or because of our unique implementation of capitalism. Thus countries like Japan, China, India or even Russia focused on and copied these attributes to “emulate” the U.S. And their national economic and societal trajectories each shaped up much like our country at the dawn of the 20th century. Many think that these rising economies or countries will inevitably overtake the U.S. What I think they miss is that none of these countries possesses the unique and special attributes of diversity, adaptability, ethics, entrepreneurship and innovation that only Americans possess. Our education system may not be the best by many objective criteria, but we still have the best universities for a reason. The U.S. may not have the best test scores or the most Ph.D students, but we still have the most creative people. And by that I mean, we still have the people most likely to invent, innovate and create great new things, and not just copy or improve someone else’s idea. This is what a leader is and does, and there is no way China, India, Japan or Russia can do this because they each lack one or more key requirement in the recipe for greatness: democracy, capitalism, innovation, ethics, and religious and cultural diversity and tolerance.

He responded to this by saying that I am overly optimistic. Was my assessment based on wishful thinking or are there any statistics to back it up? Where's the beef?

Well, I responded by saying that my assessment is based on recent and real-world innovations. Think of the major transformative products or ideas in recent years—and most are American. Everything from the iPod and Hollywood movies to GPS, communications, biomedical research and alternative energy. Or looking at it another way, what revolutionary or transformative idea has Japan, China, India or Russia contributed recently? The “outflow of brains” theory is rooted in the statistics of how many degrees are being obtained by various ethnic groups—not by a real-world manifestation of what those people do with their brains. I will take one good American engineer over 10 Chinese Ph.D’s any day of the week. Likewise, I'll take one good American software developer over 10 good Indian programmers. The reason again is the intangible of creativity. The Chinese engineer or Indian programmer, for example, can do but he/she can’t innovate or invent. Just one quick at the Apple iPod/iPhone, and you see why Americans do most of the great things. The rest of the world just complains about our arrogance or undo influence without offering anything themselves, but they follow our lead nevertheless.

I don’t think I’m an optimistic at all—merely being pragmatic and realistic. I’m not a U.S. cheerleader, and have in fact, been deeply critical of many government policies and of our general strategic direction. That criticism however doesn't mean that the rest of the world will pass us any time soon. I think one of America’s unique qualities is its boundless energy, and the unique ability to reengineer or reinvent itself as needed. Historically, many dominant empires or cultures were based mostly on sheer military innovation and might. I think America is different because it possesses a unique mix of dynamic, ethical, intellectual and innovative qualities that don't exist elsewhere. Our diversity is the engine that propels us, and thus I don’t think America will become complacent or overconfident.

Take the current energy and global warming crises, for example. While the U.S. led the world down the road toward oil-dependency and environmental catastrophe, I am confident that, within the next few decades, it will be the U.S. innovating and adapting its way out of this energy crisis—all while doing our part to improve the environment. This is because we are wealthy, innovative, ethical AND adaptable. In the meantime, China and India are just entering (too late as you can imagine), the oil-driven world. Can you believe that China and India still have sales and other incentives for having their people buy automobiles? China now has one of the fastest growing markets for large cars and SUVs, including Hummers! They face an economic and environmental catastrophe, and it is a good example of why Americans need not worry about China or India passing us in our lifetime. If they have so many smart people, how come they haven’t invented non-polluting plants, new alternative energy sources or perhaps an electric car, by now? Do you really think that someone in China will come up with a solution to our world's most vexing problems before an American? I wouldn’t bet on that.

America is easy to pick on or to criticize because we are highly visible and successful leader of the world, and people generally don’t like the big boy on the block. I think the U.S. is still out ahead of the pack, and while it’s convenient and easy to speculate about its imminent demise, we forget that the U.S.’s inherent advantages remain unchanged simply because they are attributes that other countries cannot easily manage, engineer, teach or copy.

Let’s take a look at China and Russia for a moment. Both countries have a long history of failed monarchies and a deep inferiority complex. While both now enjoy strong and growing economies based on manufacturing or bountiful natural resources, respectively, what would they do even if they should overtake the U.S. economically? Neither has any real sense of purpose. Neither country or people have a sense of global responsibility or the ethics or principles required to become a true leader. You are not a leader because you can produce more oil or children’s toys than anyone else. You are a leader because you can inspire, invent, produce and/or help lead the rest of the world forward.

So you can say “I told you so” when we see the next great transformative idea comes from outside this country. In the meantime, in the real-world, the U.S. remains unchallenged.

So I'm not a U.S cheerleader...

Go U.S! GO U.S! GO GO GO!

California Trip

We recently took the kids on a fun two-week driving trip of California. The plan was to fly into Sacramento and spend the night in Santa Rosa. We'd do a bunch of stuff in Sonoma and Marin County before heading into "The City" (San Francisco, if you didn't know) for four days. Then, we're off to the great outdoors and Yosemite National Park. After three nights in Yosemite, we would drive west to Pacific Grove for a night before heading south on the PCH to Santa Barbara. From there, it was a short drive to our Los Angeles base in Santa Monica. Here are a few interesting bits from our trip:

1. For our first evening in California, we had booked the Hilton Sonoma Wine Country in Santa Rosa via Hotwire for $86. When we arrived however, we were told they were overbooked but would comp us a night at the neighboring Fountaingrove Inn. I was angry and immediately thought "bait and switch". We had a very nice stay at the Fountaingrove Inn however so I guess we can't complain.
2. The original plan was to visit Sonoma, Glen Ellen, Petaluma, Calistoga, Point Reyes and Muir Woods all in one day before heading into the city. Well, that turned out to be way too ambitious so we ended up doing about half of it. I'm not sure what I was thinking as far as Point Reyes goes--it really requires a day in of itself! Next time, we do all this over two full days.
3. There's only one TripAdvisor top-rated, sub-$200/night hotel in San Francisco--the Chancellor Hotel. It's an old hotel with smallish rooms and no A/C, but it gets high marks. Having travelled quite a bit, I was skeptical about being "wowed", but for $151/night including parking at Union Square, how could we go wrong? Well, this hotel was awesome! The rooms are smallish but had a small walk-in closet for storage. The beds were comfy and the in-room wifi was great. Even the hot weather during our stay didn't cause us to miss air conditioning. And most of the staff were extremely friendly and helpful throughout our stay. They had complimentary fruit, cookies, coffee and beverages in either the lobby or bar area most of the day. My only complaints were the lack of a view (forgot to ask), no in-room refrigerator and a noisy toilet.
   
4. In this day and age, many managers talk about customer service but almost nobody actually puts their money where their mouth is. Here's where the Chancellor's General Manager, Wes Tyler, really did go above and beyond. On arrival, I had emptied our car of luggage and some of our other belongings (including two $45 bottles of 2005 Benziger Oonapais wine) onto the sidewalk just outside the hotel. I went in to check-in while my wife stayed with the kids and watched the bellman load up our stuff. Later, after getting our stuff and settling in, we noticed the missing wine. By the time someone could outside, our wine was long gone. We were disappointed but the obviously the mistake was nobody's in particular. Well, Mr. Tyler found out about our missing wine from a review I posted on TripAdvisor. And although he clearly didn't have to, he felt responsible and shipped us another two bottles of the wine! Now, THAT'S customer service I haven't seen in a long time. Anyhow, his passion for taking care of his guests clearly shows in this outstanding hotel!
5. Unless you have money to burn, don't eat at McCormick and Kuleto's in Ghirardelli Square in San Francisco! My wife and I have eaten at a lot of restaurants in our time including some very nice places. What struck us about McCormick and Kuleto's is that, while the view and ambiance are good, the food quality was surprisingly mediocre and expensive. And this is consistent with other M&S restaurants. $60 for a appetizer sampler? $32 for overcooked fish? Even my daughter didn't like her kid's meal. Give me a break.
6. Yosemite Valley was the perfect place to experience nature's breath-taking beauty without leaving the comforts of home behind. While I've personally done everything from primitive camping to 5-star hotels, I wasn't sure just how much nature my wife could take. She grew up living in apartments and condos, and her idea of the wilderness is the clump of trees in our backyard. Well, Yosemite offers everything from campgrounds to the full-service Ahwahnee. The Ahwahnee even has a formal dining room with a dress code! So guess where we stayed? Yup. Needless to say, the Ahwahnee was nice but it was a bit too stuffy for our taste.
7. Around Yosemite Valley, there are great hiking and biking trails, regular shuttles to get you around, many restaurants (formal sit-down and buffets), a deli and pizzeria, two bike rental locations, and a grocery store. For us, the perfect blend of civilization and nature.
8. The Big Sur fire closed the PCH the day we were heading south on it, so we had turn around at Big Sur--costing us a two hour detour. All-in-all, we were not impacted by most of the California wildfires as we just avoided most of them. Most of them started kicking up soon after we departed an area. You would've thought we started them! Anyhow, we never made it to Santa Barbara that evening so we stayed at the Apple Farm Inn in San Luis Obispo. We'd stayed there before and enjoyed it again. I'm not sure how to use this experience in the future--how do you plan around wildfires?
9. The Getty Center in LA was a great place for families because they have a wide variety of different art, interesting public spaces, and many things to do for the kids. I also felt like we were home in DC because, like the Smithsonian, there is no admission fee!
10. The last time we visited LA, we stumbled across a downtown LA shoot of "Wayne's World 2". It was very interesting and we got to see or meet Dana Carvey, Mike Meyers, Tia Carrera and Christopher Walken. This time, we were taking the kids to see the walk of stars in Hollywood, only to discover the street was closed for the red carpet premier event for "Hancock". Depending on who you ask in the family, we either cherished or wasted several hours hanging out waiting to see, shake hands or take pics of various celebs, including but not limited to, Will Smith, Charlize Theron, Peter Berg, Jason Bateman, Chris Daughtry, Sinbad, Sean Combs and the Cheetah Girls. Who are the Cheetah Girls anyhow???

Pre-Travel CheckList of Things to Do

Here's my list of things I always do before leaving on vacation:

In advance of leaving:
- Ask a friend or neighbor to check in periodically. They can make sure the walkway and driveway are clear of newspapers and other deliverables, and can water plants if you are away for an extended period
- Stop the newspaper and hold the mail

On the day of travel:
- Turn off the main water. Water is one of the biggest dangers to your home and possessions. Don't even think of leaving your house vulnerable to pressurized water in your pipes! This applies year round but especially in the winter when pipes can also freeze and crack. Also, every toilet loses some water over time so you will also be conserving water.
- Set back the temperature on your thermostat(s) to conserve heat or A/C.
- Set back the temperature on your water heater. Why heat water when you're not using it?
- Pack the freezer. The freezer will run much more efficiently when it's jam-packed.
- Put the refrigerator in vacation or energy-saving mode. Many refrigerators now allow you to stop the automatic defrost cycling that consumes extra energy. Defrosting is unnecessary when nobody is opening and closing the doors that would usually allow humidity to enter and freeze inside the unit. Alternatively, manually move the freezer temp up to 5 degrees F and the refrigerator temp to 40-45 degrees F.
- Unplug transformer bricks, TVs, computers, cable set-top boxes and other energy-consuming devices. Remember most modern electronics draw significant power even when they are "off". For example, a 65-inch LCD TV can draw 76 watts even when it is "off"!
- Prep your cars. If you're going away for awhile, disconnect your car's batteries or, if you don't want to lose your memorized radio and seating positions, keep them on an intelligent battery charger. Many modern (especially luxury) vehicles draw plenty of amps even when parked so an extended vacation can leave your battery weak or drained by the time you return.
- Set-up timers for lights in different rooms that closely simulate your "normal" home occupancy patterns
- Turn off all lights not on timers
- Relocate plants susceptible to temperature extremes to other parts of the house, and water them well.
- Close all windows
- Empty the trash. Your salmon from last night's dinner ain't gonna smell so good two weeks from now!
- Arm the security system

And for me, most of the above applies anytime we are away from the house for even 24 hours. Hope this helps!

HP Printers

I've personally been buying and using HP printers for over twenty years now. I fondly remember our old HP LaserJet II, IIId and 4si printers from the 80's and 90's. They each probably printed several hundred thousand pages with hardly any servicing or maintenance before eventually quitting. In 1999, we purchased our HP LaserJet 5000GN and, nine years and probably a hundred thousand pages later, it's still going strong! We kill fewer trees these days because we print so much less than we used to. The 90's vision of the "paperless" office is really approaching reality!

I'm disappointed to report that my 2 1/2 year-old HP OfficeJet 7410 inkjet's scanner unit apparently just failed. When copying or scanning, the unit will routinely make a loud grinding noise, displays a "scanner failure" error message, and hangs. So now it can print but can't scan, fax or photocopy.

Since it's out of warranty, nobody locally wants to fix it, and it's not worth shipping it for service. As my home office unit, I doubt it's even scanned or printed 1,000 pages yet and it still smells and looks like new. At $468 delivered, that means it cost me about 46 cents per page to own and operate, and that doesn't include the cost of toner and paper! I realize I can't compare a multifunction inkjet-based printer to a workhorse LaserJet, but this multifunction unit wasn't that much cheaper than those LaserJets.

I've since replaced this defective HP OfficeJet 7410 with a new HP LaserJet CM1312mfp multifunction. We'll see how long this one lasts, but I'm certain it's not going to make it to 100,000 copies or 10 years like the old workhorses...