Rising China, India and Russia?

A friend of mine and I frequently debate as to whether the U.S. is in decline or not. He routinely points out that China, India and Russia are rising powers. Our addiction to, and consumption of, foreign goods, and overall lack of energy resources is creating a huge transfer of wealth overseas. Americans have become complacent and our education system is faltering. The resulting brain drain will inevitably make us a second-tier nation. The U.S. already can't manufacture anything competitively, and we will face our eventual demise.

I argue that the U.S. possesses inherent advantages that still uniquely make us “one of a kind”. Much focus has been made on America’s success due to our industrial past or because of our unique implementation of capitalism. Thus countries like Japan, China, India or even Russia focused on and copied these attributes to “emulate” the U.S. And their national economic and societal trajectories each shaped up much like our country at the dawn of the 20th century. Many think that these rising economies or countries will inevitably overtake the U.S. What I think they miss is that none of these countries possesses the unique and special attributes of diversity, adaptability, ethics, entrepreneurship and innovation that only Americans possess. Our education system may not be the best by many objective criteria, but we still have the best universities for a reason. The U.S. may not have the best test scores or the most Ph.D students, but we still have the most creative people. And by that I mean, we still have the people most likely to invent, innovate and create great new things, and not just copy or improve someone else’s idea. This is what a leader is and does, and there is no way China, India, Japan or Russia can do this because they each lack one or more key requirement in the recipe for greatness: democracy, capitalism, innovation, ethics, and religious and cultural diversity and tolerance.

He responded to this by saying that I am overly optimistic. Was my assessment based on wishful thinking or are there any statistics to back it up? Where's the beef?

Well, I responded by saying that my assessment is based on recent and real-world innovations. Think of the major transformative products or ideas in recent years—and most are American. Everything from the iPod and Hollywood movies to GPS, communications, biomedical research and alternative energy. Or looking at it another way, what revolutionary or transformative idea has Japan, China, India or Russia contributed recently? The “outflow of brains” theory is rooted in the statistics of how many degrees are being obtained by various ethnic groups—not by a real-world manifestation of what those people do with their brains. I will take one good American engineer over 10 Chinese Ph.D’s any day of the week. Likewise, I'll take one good American software developer over 10 good Indian programmers. The reason again is the intangible of creativity. The Chinese engineer or Indian programmer, for example, can do but he/she can’t innovate or invent. Just one quick at the Apple iPod/iPhone, and you see why Americans do most of the great things. The rest of the world just complains about our arrogance or undo influence without offering anything themselves, but they follow our lead nevertheless.

I don’t think I’m an optimistic at all—merely being pragmatic and realistic. I’m not a U.S. cheerleader, and have in fact, been deeply critical of many government policies and of our general strategic direction. That criticism however doesn't mean that the rest of the world will pass us any time soon. I think one of America’s unique qualities is its boundless energy, and the unique ability to reengineer or reinvent itself as needed. Historically, many dominant empires or cultures were based mostly on sheer military innovation and might. I think America is different because it possesses a unique mix of dynamic, ethical, intellectual and innovative qualities that don't exist elsewhere. Our diversity is the engine that propels us, and thus I don’t think America will become complacent or overconfident.

Take the current energy and global warming crises, for example. While the U.S. led the world down the road toward oil-dependency and environmental catastrophe, I am confident that, within the next few decades, it will be the U.S. innovating and adapting its way out of this energy crisis—all while doing our part to improve the environment. This is because we are wealthy, innovative, ethical AND adaptable. In the meantime, China and India are just entering (too late as you can imagine), the oil-driven world. Can you believe that China and India still have sales and other incentives for having their people buy automobiles? China now has one of the fastest growing markets for large cars and SUVs, including Hummers! They face an economic and environmental catastrophe, and it is a good example of why Americans need not worry about China or India passing us in our lifetime. If they have so many smart people, how come they haven’t invented non-polluting plants, new alternative energy sources or perhaps an electric car, by now? Do you really think that someone in China will come up with a solution to our world's most vexing problems before an American? I wouldn’t bet on that.

America is easy to pick on or to criticize because we are highly visible and successful leader of the world, and people generally don’t like the big boy on the block. I think the U.S. is still out ahead of the pack, and while it’s convenient and easy to speculate about its imminent demise, we forget that the U.S.’s inherent advantages remain unchanged simply because they are attributes that other countries cannot easily manage, engineer, teach or copy.

Let’s take a look at China and Russia for a moment. Both countries have a long history of failed monarchies and a deep inferiority complex. While both now enjoy strong and growing economies based on manufacturing or bountiful natural resources, respectively, what would they do even if they should overtake the U.S. economically? Neither has any real sense of purpose. Neither country or people have a sense of global responsibility or the ethics or principles required to become a true leader. You are not a leader because you can produce more oil or children’s toys than anyone else. You are a leader because you can inspire, invent, produce and/or help lead the rest of the world forward.

So you can say “I told you so” when we see the next great transformative idea comes from outside this country. In the meantime, in the real-world, the U.S. remains unchallenged.

So I'm not a U.S cheerleader...

Go U.S! GO U.S! GO GO GO!